Can we prove the bookies wrong and avoid relegation?

Well the bookies have us down as second favorites for the drop. The question is can we upset the odds?

We know that history tells us that the majority of teams that are promoted to the Promised Land don’t last beyond a brief 10-month sojourn.

We also finished 5^th last season, some way beyond the two teams that gained automatic promotion so even by Division One standards we were some way behind.

However, has Dave Jones managed to turn the club into a Premiership team in the few short months since that memorable day at Cardiff?

The signings we’ve made haven’t rocked the world. We have those with previous Premiership experience in the likes of Luzhny, Iversen and Craddock coupled with internationals from Europe and Africa – Silas, Okoronkwo, Camara and Kameni.

However, hand on heart how many of the players that we had last season could you see comfortably making the step up to the Premiership? At a push I’d say Murray, Lescott, Irwin and Ince (legs permitting), Cameron, Miller and Kennedy.

So there we have seven players add that to the four I think are up to the job immediately at Ewood Park (Silas, Iversen, Craddock, Camara) and we just about make it.

However, we are lacking Lescott and Miller so it seems likely that Butler and Sturridge will start in our first game in the Premiership.

Unfortunately, the cover we have is not Premiership standard and Jones knows this. However, it takes time to find out just who can add some depth to the squad when the first-choice players aren’t available? Naylor, Luzhny, Blake, Newton and that’s about it.

The rest like Rae, Ndah, Proudlock, Clyde, Cooper, Oakes and Andrews don’t really fill me with confidence they can make a difference to the team. A bit harsh on Ndah and Cooper perhaps, but I can’t see where they will fill a role on any permanent basis.

Therefore, with this realistic squad assessment we are looking at some inspirational week-in, week-out performances from the 11 selected to do the job for the particular game.

Given the strength of the majority of the teams already established in the ways of the Premiership and we are going to have to adjust fast to avoid being left behind from the start.

I think the Portsmouth home game at the end of August will provide us with the acid test. It already looks like the proverbial six-pointer.

We are going to have to get results at home, there is no doubting that. However, in recent years we’ve found it difficult to perform in front of an expectant crowd at the Molineux. I think we are highly unlikely to get more than a nice day out at the likes of Old Trafford, Anfield, Highbury, St.James’s Park, Stamford Bridge, Ewood Park etc..

If we have four points on the board from the first four games, we stand a chance. A point a game average is the target to reach the 38 point mark which would probably not quite be enough but a late spurt could save us.

So we then need 3 teams to finish below us for the magical 17^th place – who are the candidates?

Last season saw the end of Sunderland who were on the slide and it was known they would struggle. This year I don’t see an equivalent Sunderland.

We have Portsmouth and Leicester whose ambitions will be similar to ourselves in just surviving the first season then building on from that.

Leicester.

Have signed many players of a similar ilk to us, those with Premiership experience. However, for me Leicester lack the flare to get the goals and take the pressure off the defence. Therefore, sorry Leicester but I think you’re going down and in 20^th place – we have one!

Portsmouth.

Have made few summer signings and are financially restricted due to limits on their ground capacity. That said, they still have good players from last season and look like signing Berkovic who is a playmaker. Again I see them struggling to score goals. The forwards they have won’t get the number of chances offered to them last season and you don’t get 4 or 5 chances at this level to score, you might get two and you have to take them. I think Portsmouth will finish higher than Leicester and may avoid the drop.

Charlton.

Never a fancied team but they have enough nous to stay clear of trouble.

Fulham.

Tipped to struggle with their new manager Coleman at the helm. I still think they possess some quality, if miss-firing individuals. However, if they start badly I don’t think they have the British bottle to battle it out. If Sean Davis leaves this could help our cause. They won’t be far away but I think they’ll just be above the trap door.

Leeds.

I think Reid will sort them out and they’ll sit just below mid-table. If Viduka leaves, again this would be a bonus from our point of view but Alan Smith is quality. Still likely to finish above us even if disaster strikes once again at Elland Road.

Bolton.

Our old friends from the Reebok. Alladyce has worked his magic before and the second wanderers’ team do have battling qualities. He used the loan system very well but, like Coventry before them, you can only hang on for so long before you fall foul. Therefore, Bolton to go down in 18^th place. We have two!

Villa.

Struggled last season and is a test of O’Leary’s management credentials. Unfortunately still have some good players – Barry, Mellberg, Hendrie and surely one of their million pound forwards is sure to start scoring eventually. Safety by several points.

Blues.

Could do a Bradford or Ipswich after successful first season however, I think players like Savage (love him or hate him), Upson, Lazaridis and Dugarry will see them finish as the highest placed Midlands team.

I think the other 11 teams are far too strong to be looking at the bottom of the table. Man United, City, Everton, Liverpool, Blackburn, Southampton, Boro, Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs will fill the majority of the top places.

So bad news – I’ve only found two teams that are going to fill the relegation places – Bolton and Leicester - which means that unfortunately we are going to make up the trio for the drop.

19^th place awaits us.

I also think that it will be a foregone conclusion by the time April comes around. I think we’ll do better than the Albion and get around 30-33 points but no more.

Ince and Irwin I don’t expect to last the distance. Jones will try re-inforcements but no quality player wants to join a struggling team that is heading down rather than up. I think we’ll become stronger from the experience and hopefully bounce straight back up. I certainly intend to enjoy it even when times are difficult, whatever the outcome it beats playing Crewe, Wigan and the Albion!

However, I’d absolutely love to be proved completely wrong!

Email me with any feedback etc. at: dave@wolves-mad.co.uk